The Quorum Report
Editor: Harvey Kronberg
P.O. Box 8 Austin, Texas 78767
Voice: 512-292-8191
Fax: 512-292-0099
Email: kronberg@quorumreport.com
January 8, 2008      4:19 PM
ã Copyright January 8, 2008 by Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All
rights are reserved

SURVEYING HOUSTON DEMOCRATIC RACES
Olivo and Coleman face challengers, potentially stout Democrat files for
Talton district QR today takes a look at three Democratic primaries in the Houston area, two of which are contested.

HD 27: Longtime Fort Bend County Representative Dora Olivo (D-Rosenberg)
faces another challenge from a young black candidate. Olivo has long been
seen as possibly vulnerable to a strong black challenger because of the
district's demographics. Dana Chiodo's analysis on her Texas Candidates Web
site indicates that blacks form the largest ethnic group in the district
with 34.1 percent of the population. Hispanics account for 32 percent while
whites account for 30.2 percent.

That strength, though, is not similarly reflected when asking who has the
biggest share of the voting population. Whites have the largest voting bloc
in the district with 33.4 percent, according to Chiodo. Blacks make up 32.8
percent of the voting population while Hispanics make up 29.7 percent.

In 2006, though, Steve Brown could not break 40 percent against Olivo. That
was despite a fairly impressive resume, which included stints on the staffs
of U.S. Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee and of state Rep. Sylvester Turner. He also
interned in the Clinton White House.

This year, Olivo is being challenged by Missouri City attorney Ron Reynolds.
The challenger first gained legislative experience through his participation
in state Sen. Rodney Ellis' Texas Legislative Internship Program. He is
currently president of the NAACP chapter in Fort Bend County.

So what's there to indicate that Reynolds will fare any better than Steve
Brown? Those looking for indications of possible weaknesses on the part of
the incumbent can look at her most recent endorsement list. It included
Ellis, state Reps. Jessica Farrar, Senfronia Thompson, U.S. Rep. Al Green
and Fort Bend County Constable Ruben Davis. All of them are now backing the
challenger, according to Reynolds.


Ellis confirmed to QR today that he's backing Reynolds in the race, noting
that he was one of the first graduates of the Senator's internship program.
Reynolds adds the names of Missouri City Mayor Allen Owen and Fort Bend
County Commissioner Grady Prestage as former Olivo supporters who have lent
their name to his campaign.

If those officials have indeed defected, that's a big blow to Olivo. Brown
had limited access to resources last race and drew mainly on donations from
Texans for Lawsuit Reform and HillCo PAC. Reynolds stands to have more
resources at his disposal with the active backing of Ellis.

Olivo said that Ellis had informed her "a while ago" that he's backing the
challenger in the race and that the supporters' list on her campaign Web
site needs to be updated. Reynolds said the reason for the erosion of
support for Olivo stems from her decision to run for re-election. He claims
that Olivo had let it be known that she would not run again after her 2006
election and that some of her backers expected her to step aside for another
representative. Ellis said that was his understanding, too.

Olivo said that she had indeed told a small group of supporters that she was
not running after the conclusion of session this year. She said that she had
a difficult year, which was punctuated by the death of her father. She
reports, though, that her supporters were not happy to hear what she was
thinking and asked her to reconsider. She changed her mind after she
approached possible successors who said they did not want to run for office.
She added that the final decision was made after getting the blessing of her
husband.

Olivo said she never promised anyone that she would not run again and that
she's never made a promise to only serve 10 years in the House, contrary to
rumors she said were floating in the district. She noted that Reynolds was
exploring a run for the seat during session last year, well before Olivo had
any discussions about her future. At the time, Olivo said she received a
call from someone who said that she would get a challenger because she
hadn't delivered for the blacks in the district.

"I take this work really serious," she said. "It's not a game. That's why
I'm running."